November 21, 2005
By Jim Suhr
The Associated Press
CARBONDALE — Harvey Henson knows people might not fret much about the prospect of Midwest earthquakes.
And in this region with one of the nation's most active underground faults, it's that lack of preparedness that can make him tremble.
"It's the nature of what we're dealing with — we don't get tested every 10 to 12 years like California does," said Henson, a Southern Illinois University geophysicist. "Public interest wanes, and I don't think it's a good thing."
He's looking to shake that up.
Henson and Scott Hodgson, an associate professor in the school's radio-and-television department, have created short public-awareness announcements to begin airing next month between programs on WSIU-TV in Carbondale.
The two educators hope to get the spots aired on other PBS stations around the New Madrid seismic zone, which is a network of fissures in the Earth's crust from southern Illinois near Cairo south through parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee. The video warns that residents in Mississippi and Indiana also may feel the effects.
"If an earthquake hits and you have to think for three seconds what to do, that's too long. You may have a second," Hodgson said. The video spots should "provide a visual reference, stuff that would instantly just pop into your mind if needed."
QUAKE COULD HIT ANY TIME
Scientists have warned for years that a powerful quake could hit any time along the New Madrid Fault.
That zone was blamed for a series of some of the largest quakes in U.S. history in 1811-12. According to many accounts, those temblors shook the area around New Madrid, Mo., causing the Mississippi River to run backward for a time, church bells to toll on the East Coast, and formed Reelfoot Lake — Tennessee's largest natural lake.
Although no instruments existed then to measure that quake's strength, estimates put it at magnitude 8.0, near the top of the earthquake range. The Richter scale, which measures earthquakes, was developed in 1935.
Two other earthquakes measuring at least an estimated magnitude 6 have occurred in the New Madrid zone — one in 1843, another in 1895. Moderately damaging quakes have hit the zone every few decades since 1900, and nondamaging earthquakes that are barely felt on the Earth's surface happen a couple times a year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD
Scientists give a 7 percent to 10 percent probability on the likelihood of a New Madrid quake the size of the 1811-12 temblors over the next 50 years, said Gary Patterson of the University of Memphis' Center for Earthquake Research and Information. There's a 25 percent to 40 percent probability for a smaller-but-still-damaging quake of 6.0 magnitude over the next five decades, he said.
Still, experts have warned that the quake that produced last December's deadly tsunami in the Indian Ocean — and the destruction of Hurricane Katrina — should remind Midwesterners to be proactive in readying for natural disasters.
"It's definitely prudent to prepare," Patterson said.
MUCH POTENTIALLY AT RISK
The possible stakes are high: If the New Madrid fault ruptures, geological and political officials have said the loss of key Midwest roads, railways, power grids and pipelines over the Mississippi likely would choke off vital supplies to distant cities for months. Such a quake also could threaten several densely populated cities, where buildings often predate modern building codes and are not reinforced.
Henson and Hodgson hope to stoke awareness with Suddenly ... On an Average Day, an updated version of the PBS-aired video Hodgson made in 1989 — just before that year's 6.9-magnitude California quake killed 63 people and caused about $6 billion dollars in damage to the Bay Area.
The new video warns viewers that "Mother Nature can strike at any moment. Her unpredictability has devastating effects on the unsuspecting." The clip then asks, "When it happens, will you be prepared?"
It also shows a family's life turned upside down as a quake rocks their home. A ceiling fan smashes to the floor and dishes shatter as the father smartly rides out the temblor with his daughter under the kitchen table.
The spot offers suggestions, from turning off all utilities and open flames after the quake. Other tips include bolting large furniture to walls before a quake hits and setting aside a "kit" that has a flashlight, battery-powered radio, canned food and bottled water.
HOPES MESSAGE AIRS
Hodgson hopes the campaign that cost $160,000 gets aired on the more than two dozen PBS stations in the New Madrid zone. He also wants to use grants help make an hour-long video, with much of their project available online, at schools, malls and other agencies.
State Rep. John Bradley, a Marion Democrat, cheers the effort.
"I was tickled to death to hear they were taking steps to do something like that," said Bradley, who recently met with Williamson County, state and local emergency officials and politicians to talk about his district's preparedness for a quake.
If the "big one" hits, he said, individual readiness could be crucial.
"There's going to be a period of time, hopefully very short, where people are going to have to be their own first line of defense," he said.
On the Net
•U.S. Geological Survey earthquake site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov•Southern Illinois University quake site: www.science.siu.edu/geology/quakes
•Center of Earthquake Research and Information: www.ceri.memphis.edu•National Earthquake Information Center: http://neic.usgs.gov
http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/couriernews/top/3_1_EL21_A1QUAKES_S1.htm
