July 27, 2009
By Tim Puko
Tribune-Review, Pittsburgh
Meteorologists at AccuWeather have a name for 2009: "Year Without True Summer." The worst part? It could lead to the truest of winters.
July's below-average temperatures could mean heavy snowfalls and bitter cold this winter along the Eastern Seaboard, according to the State College-based service and its chief meteorologist, Joe Bastardi. Whether Pittsburgh will feel the chill is tough to say: It's on the edge of the predicted snow belt and might or might not be hit, depending on where the storms blow, AccuWeather meteorologist Kate Walters said.
Photo: Debbie Shelestak, 37, of Blawnox (not shown) and her children (from left) Bridget, 9, Emily, 6, Ethan, 3, and Ben, 5, stroll past a wintry mural along Freeport Road in Blawnox. Accuweather meteorologists say a cool summer could indicate we're in store for a wet, snowy winter. (Justin Merriman/Tribune-Review)
But these types of long-term forecasts are difficult to make accurately, other meteorologists said. The National Weather Service has a less detailed long-range outlook that in part contradicts AccuWeather's. And Weather Channel meteorologists declined to comment, telling their spokesman that such predictions are just too hard to make.
"They vary greatly, depending on their detail. The more detail, the less likely they are to be accurate," said Lee Hendricks, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Pittsburgh office. "It gets real (uncertain) beyond (90 days). All you're doing is trying to play the game of percentages."
No correlation exists between summer and winter weather, Hendricks said. Summer weather patterns flow north from the tropics; winter weather patterns flow south with polar air from Canada, he said.
The National Weather Service predicts winter temperatures are more likely to be at or slightly higher than the normal 30 degrees around Pittsburgh. It has yet to predict how much precipitation the region will get.
Even authors of The Old Farmer's Almanac, famous for its long-range outlook, won't have any predictions ready until the book comes out in September, said a spokeswoman for its publisher.
The AccuWeather predictions are meant to describe general trends, said Walters, who did not have information on the accuracy of its long-range predictions of the past. "It's more of a guideline, not per se actual," she added.
A colder, snowier winter would mean increased energy bills, travel delays, school closings and pressure on snow removal crews. That could put real stress on Western Pennsylvanian communities that have spent a lot of money on road salt in recent years, Walters said.
The winter could be one of the snowiest since 2003, when 80 inches fell on some places in the East, according to Bastardi's report. Even if the amount is around the norm, it might seem like a lot of snow fell because of the mild winters in recent years, Walters added.
"You know what? This past winter was frigid and unbearable because there was no snow," said Erin Warner, 25, of Squirrel Hill. "I won't mind the cold this winter so long as we get snow this time around."
In the meantime, temperatures will likely remain cooler than average throughout the rest of the summer, Walters said. The threat of more severe storms and flash floods remains in the region's creekside communities.
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