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Shakers Piling Up
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| Aerial view of collapsed sections of the Cypress viaduct of I-880, October 17, 1989, Loma Prieta, California [H.G. Wilshire, USGS] |
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In the U.S., earthquakes pose significant risk to 75 million
Americans in 39 states. USGS Jan. 2004 |
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| March 12, 2010 By Holly Deyo
Below is a chart I've maintained for nearly two decades just to see how we fair each year with earthquakes. First, I apologize to those with small monitors that will need to scroll to view the chart. It's necessary for you to see each year's info so you see the big uptick in both quakes and resulting deaths for 2010. In just 10 weeks of 2010, averages are already filling up. The largest mag. shaker quota has already been fulfilled.
It's interesting to see how quake data are periodically "adjusted" by USGS. For example, in rechecking the figures for 2007, USGS had previously noted 5 Mag. 8.0-9.9 events. Now it shows 4. When this occurs, normally the next lower Richter picks up the slack. Not this time. USGS data used to show 16 Richters 7s. That, too, was decreased by 2 events to 14. Where did these quakes go? It's pretty hard to "disappear" events of this size. Anyway, that year has passed and 2010 is already showing a remarkable number of earthquakes. In case the explanation is unclear how to read the old and new quake averages, look at the two green columns. In 2003 USGS changed what they observed to be the average number of quakes for each magnitude. However, it's interesting to see how a year's quakes stack up to the old averages noted in purple. It's not too concerning that USGS so drastically adjusted Richter 4s and 5s. Several factors can account for increased numbers of quakes detected under Richter 6:
You'll get a much more accurate read with mag. 6's and greater events because even distant monitors pick up this activity. They make it harder for USGS to "disappear" like they did with the possible 8.6 quake in China this January.
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Mag.
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
New
Yearly
Ave.
Mar 11,
2010
to New
Ave.
Old
Yearly
Ave.
Thru
Mar 11,
2010
to Old
Ave.
8.0 - 9.9
Great
0
1
2
3
1
0
2
0
4
3
1
2
1
1
4
0
1
1
11
2
50%
7.0 - 7.9
Major
24
15
13
22
21
20
14
23
16
15
16
14
11
11
14
12
16
3
172
18
11%
6.0 - 6.9
Strong
163
141
161
185
160
125
113
123
153
124
145
146
154
139
178
168
142
41
1342
120
15%
5.0 - 5.9
Moderate
1,521
1,449
1,542
1,327
1,223
1,118
979
1,106
1,345
1,243
1,252
1,637
1,954
1,529
2,072
1,768
1,700
476
13192
800
59%
4.0 - 4.9
Light
5,153
5,034
4,544
8,140
8,794
7,938
7,303
7,042
8,084
8,084
8,454
10,783
13,702
13,048
12,105
12,292
6,980
1,110
13,000
6200
18%
Deaths
3,814
10,036
1,038
7,949
419
2,907
9,430
22,711
231
35,000-
40,000*
43,819
284,010
82,364
6,605
712
88,208
1,787
223,161
10,000
10,000
2200%
1 Based on observations since 1900.
2 Based on observations since 1990.
*NOTES: At the end of September 2003, the USGS adjusted earthquake global averages for magnitudes 4, 5, 6 and 7. Most have increased, one magnitude decreased in shaker averages. This indicates an overall increase in earthquake activity. To get a fair comparison, both the "old" and "new" averages are included in the chart above.
The exact number of deaths from the January 26, 2001 India earthquake will never be known. According to the Red Cross, "Death toll reports vary widely, with some ranging from more 20,000 to as many as 100,000."