Stan Deyo's Earthquake Warning

Stan's analyses often show seismic stress signals that do not become full-fledged earthquakes in his 5 to 10 day forecasts. He has maintained for a number of years that these signals indicate pressure build-ups which are just as important as actual earthquakes in long-range regional threat assessments.

Recently, geologists have identified a seismic event they call a "slow earthquake." (see Silent Earthquakes Might Predict Major Events and Kilauea's Sides Undergoing 'Slow Quakes'). It might be that these slow earthquakes are connected to seismic signals that don't appear to make a normal earthquake in Stan's 5 to 10 forecasts.

September 29, 2006
By Stan Deyo
Go to Earth Changes News

California Coast: Large storm front offshore creates thermal boundary into southern California. The long line is a sea surface temperature change line. The blue area to the north side of the line makes heavier seawater while the yellow area makes lighter or less dense seawater. Rapid weight changes in this region could trigger several seismic events within the border of the butterfly ellipse I have drawn. This could produce quakes in the 4 to 5 range over the next week if the fault lines in the region are charged.

South Australian Coast: A seismic threat has appeared between Perth and Adelaide in the ocean as shown.... maybe Richter 3 to 4.

Near Japan: From Sakhalin island to Hokkaido showing signs of a quake event.

New Caledonia and Loyalty Islands: Slight stress evident.

North of Bonin Islands: Showing stress for quake possibly Richter 5.

Summary: Possibly the worst area I see today is off the southern California coast. However, because a storm has caused rapid temperature flux in the region, this may be a non-event. Areas on the western edge of the Great Ring of Fire and down into the SW Ring of Fire seem to be stressing significantly. Watch New Caledonia, New Guinea, Tokyo to SE of Tokyo and Sakhalin Island. —Stan Deyo

For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.

Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.

NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.

These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.

DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).

Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.

Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.

Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.