April 2, 2005
By Ken Kaye, Staff Writer
Sun Sentinel
April 1, 2005Named Storms Named Storm Days Hurricanes Hurricane Days Intense Hurricanes Intense Hurricane Days Net Tropical Cyclone Activity
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)
4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Noted prognosticator William Gray on Friday forecast the season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, would be considerably more active than normal, with 13 named storms. Seven would be hurricanes, including three intense systems -- and one or two of those could easily strike the U.S. coast.
The season could be even busier, Gray said, if El Niño, an atmospheric condition that inhibits storm formation, fails to emerge by summer.
If his forecast holds true, this year would be similar to last year, when 15 named storms, including nine hurricanes -- six intense -- formed. As Florida residents well know, four of the hurricanes pounded this state.
Photo: Hurricane expert William Gray (AP/Chris O'Meara)
"We expect this year to continue the trend witnessed over the last decade of above average hurricane seasons," said Gray, saying an average season has 10 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them intense.
Some good news, at least for now: the Bermuda High, the ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that drove the four hurricanes west toward Florida last year, has weakened, said meteorologist Jim Lushine of the National Weather Service in Miami.
If the ridge continues to deteriorate, that would allow storms to turn north, possibly before they reach the U.S. coast. However, forecasters are unsure whether the ridge will rebuild.
They will have a better read in May, when the amount of South Florida rainfall will be a critical indicator. If low, it means the ridge likely has strengthened. If rains are plentiful, the system likely has weakened, Lushine said.
"We're not sitting pretty, but the outlook is a little brighter," he said. "But it's still too early to call."
Gray and other experts doubt four hurricanes again will slam Florida because that kind of catastrophe happens once every 100 to 200 years, on average. Yet many of the same ingredients that made last year's season so devastating remain in place, including warm Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.
Gray, a Colorado State University professor, forecasts a 73 percent chance at least one major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline, a 53 percent chance one will hit the East Coast, including Florida, and a 41 percent chance one will find the Gulf Coast.
All told, he calls for U.S. landfall probability to be about 140 percent of average.
"As it stands today, conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season," said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher on Gray's team.
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