March 27, 2020
Submitted By George Hiscox

Do My husband is a fourth generation grocer. He is also on the board of directors of a major food distribution co-op in the Western United States. We own and operate a small grocery chain spanning three western states. He grew up eating and breathing grocery and food trends from a very young age. We have been having a conversation about what is going on in the food industry, from his view as an industry insider. These are some logistics to consider which may lead to food shortages and social unrest particularly in urban areas.

Consider this as an economist, a sociologist and a psychologist...

About a year ago America's meals from restaurants topped those being made at home as reported within the grocery industry. This is expressed more in urban areas than rural. Urban areas are especially dependent on the restaurant industry for their meals. With restaurants closing down this food which is packaged and sold differently cannot be distributed to the grocery stores because of warehouse, trucking, marketing as well as the packaging issues. These things cannot be shifted and changed overnight. This displacement of food distribution has been interrupted and will not quickly be rerouted to the grocery industry as the distribution channels are not in place for it.

This creates a huge problem for food distribution if we had no hoarding going on at all or any other outside factors - even if these above issues could be addressed somehow immediately- the grocery industry would be completely overwhelmed to start doing double the volume nation wide and in urban areas perhaps triple the volume. There is not infrastructure put in place for this, not grocery space in the stores, freezer space in the stores, or refrigeration in stores. This would cause massive spoilage if it these items could be brought in somehow for distribution. There are not enough grocery employees to handle double volume. However as mentioned before the food channels with communication between restaurant supplies and grocers, the warehouses and packaging capabilities are the biggest obstacles impeding immediate restructure of America's food distribution set up.

There is another consideration we are witnessing which is not readily understood. When this virus became a problem that we as a nation could see as an imminent threat, Utah, because of its culture of food storage and preparing for disaster events seemed to "get the memo" first. The week of March 8th grocery sales more than doubled in Utah, up 218%. Many states stayed the same with increases in some. Idaho seemed to "get the memo" about four days later. We were out of water and TP four days after Utah. Then we were out of food staples about four days later. Next was produce following a pattern set by Utah four days earlier.

The problem for us in Idaho was this. The stores in Utah were emptied out then refilled twice by the warehouses before it hit Idaho. Many of these Utah stores have trucks delivering daily. So when it did hit Idaho the warehouses had been severely taxed. We had a hard time filling our store back up even one time. We missed three scheduled trucks that week alone. Then orders finally came they were first 50% of the order and have dropped to 20%. In normal circumstances we receive 98% of our orders and no canceled trucks. Now three weeks later, the warehouses in the Western United States have all been taxed. In turn, those warehouses have been taxing the food manufacturers. These food companies have emptied their facilities to fill the warehouses of the Western United States. The East Coast hasn't seemed to "get the memo" yet. When they do what food will be left to fill their warehouses and grocery stores?

Food distribution and resources for the Eastern United States will be at great peril even if no hoarding there takes place. But of course it will.

Additionally the food culture of the East Coast and other urban areas is such that people keep very little food on hand. They often shop several times weekly for items if they cook at home. They don't have big freezers full of meat, home canned vegetables in their storage rooms, gardens, or beans, wheat, and rice in buckets in the their basements.

They are least prepared to handle the triple blow of empty warehouses, empty food manufacture's warehouses, and the pressure of suddenly most if not all food resources needing to come from the grocery stores. This depending on what restrictions are put into place and when, causing restaurant access to greatly be restricted or entirely be no longer be a viable option.

For these reasons the food distribution of the Eastern United States and other urban areas is in great jeopardy. When this is understood by the masses social upheaval is likely to take place. This is likely to effect the United States as a whole and cause more food scarcity. Social upheaval is likely to additionally restrict the ability to bring in food resources.