Expected Global Earthquake, Volcanic or
Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days (Experimental);
(Except the SW Pacific and Indonesian Ocean
Which Have a 1 to 10 Day Window)
Stan's analyses often show seismic stress signals that do not become full-fledged earthquakes in his 5 to 10 day forecasts. He has maintained for a number of years that these signals indicate pressure build-ups which are just as important as actual earthquakes in long-range regional threat assessments.
Recently, geologists have identified a seismic event they call a "slow earthquake." (see Silent Earthquakes Might Predict Major Events and Kilauea's Sides Undergoing 'Slow Quakes'). It might be that these slow earthquakes are connected to seismic signals that don't appear to make a normal earthquake in Stan's 5 to 10 day forecasts.
February 16, 2007
By Stan Deyo
Go to Earth Changes News
Please note that when no text summary is provided, look for circles on the maps. These always indicate my areas of concern.
Summaries are written as time permits. These Earthquake Maps are a free service outside of the normal workday and depending on the data, they may require several hours to analyze. Some days it simply is not possible to provide an additional written summary. For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area. Stan Deyo
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.
Experimental Map: Please bear with Stan as he tweaks and fine-tunes his specialized software. We will see in the ensuing days, if this proves to be a workable solution since the new source map is not as detailed as the Navy's product. Our thanks to all who offered support/suggestions since FNMOC shut down their data Nov. 12 2006. During the past 3 months of "earthquake blindness" and clamp down on scientists speaking out on climate issues, it was interesting, though not surprising, to see elevated activity and shakers occurring in unusual places. Due to your continued encouragement and desire for these maps to continue, Stan persevered in his quest to find usable data.
Stan's seismic forecast maps are derived using SST Anomaly images from the AVHRR NOAA 17 satellite. These images are posted by the NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC), at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA. 2007.