Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
January 4, 2006
By Stan Deyo
Home https://standeyo.com
USA: Hawaii is showing signs of a small temblor.
Mexico City region: has been showing signs of a small to medium temblor for three days now.
Japan: Hokkaido showing small sign but could be medium if temblor is a deep one.
Vanuatu/Fiji/West Samoa: medium temblor along a line as shown.
Australia: Border region between New South Wales and Queensland showing continuing stress of a medium temblor.
Kenya/Somalia border region showing signs of small to medium temblor.
Madagascar Basin: Possible small to medium sized temblor.
Java: Showing signs of a medium to large quake from Jakarta to Lombok.
Summary: The western half of the Pacific Ring of Fire is showing a LOT of stress over the last four weeks. I believe a series of large quakes is building on the edges of the Australian/Asian tectonic plate. The stress patterns are exactly inverse to the one we saw just prior to the Nias (Sumatran) 9.2 temblor of 26 Dec 2004. This may cause the epicenter of the series to move more toward Australia than Nias.
In California and regions northward as far as Washington and eastward as far as Utah the number of small stress-relieving quakes has been down about 33% of the norm for several weeks now. Although there have been only minor thermal signs along the major faults in California and along the rest of the west coast, the lack of small quakes makes me think a medium to large temblor is building at this time. Of note is the series of small quakes at the top of the New Madrid Fault zone this last week. The signs from Mexico City to the Juan de Fuca over the last five days could indicate a period of increased temblor activity along the eastern half of the Pacific Ring of Fire.
-Stan Deyo
Please note that when no text summary is provided, look for circles on the maps. These always indicate my areas of concern.
Summaries are written as time permits. These NCODA Earthquake Maps are a free service outside of the normal workday and depending on the data, they may require several hours to analyze. Some days it simply is not possible to provide an additional written summary. —Stan Deyo
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.