Holly Deyo
October 21, 2015

JPL geophysicist Dr. Andrea Donnellan, along with seven other scientists, used radar and GPS to measure Southern California’s chances for a sizable earthquake and made a sobering discovery about another big one. NASA scientists' new study reveals that there is a 99.9% probability of a 5.0 – or larger – quake striking Los Angeles within the next 30 months.

Their study cites the March 28, 2014 La Habra quake in the San Gabriel Valley. La Habra's 5.1 shallow event was a "surprise" for the amount of damage it caused to homes and businesses in the Valley.

Because this quake was only 3-1/2 miles below the surface, over a dozen gas mains broke throughout Los Angeles County, rockslides covered roads, overturned a car and cracked pavement. USGS recorded more than a dozen aftershocks with magnitudes as high as 3.6.

While Dr. Donnellan says last year's quake relieved some stress the strain remains with enough power to unleash an even larger temblor on the same epicenter. A great than 6.0 magnitude earthquake has a 35% chance of striking within this same 3-year time frame.

Image: This image shows the region of interest and the table gives the probably of various sized events occurring within different time frames.